“Hindustan ka dil dekho” used to be the famous tagline to promote Madhya Pradesh but the 2018 Assembly results have poured out more from its heart than what meets the eye – a message for the bellwether state of Indian politics – Uttar Pradesh which is bordering with Madhya Pradesh.
There are 12 districts in Madhya Pradesh – Morena, Bhind, Datia, Shivpuri, Ashoknagar, Sagar, Chattarpur, Tikamgarh, Panna, Satna, Rewa and Singrauli which share border with 11 districts of Uttar Pradesh – Agra, Etawah, Jalaun, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Mahoba, Banda, Chitrakoot, Prayagraj, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra. The regions in Madhya Pradesh have very little Muslim population (less than 4%) (Refer: Table1) whereas they are nearly double in the UP districts; more than 20% of the population belongs to the Scheduled Caste (SC) in both the districts (Refer: Table1).
Table 1: Caste Equation of Bordering Districts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
|
State |
SC Population % |
ST Population % |
Muslim Population % |
|
12 MP districts bordering with UP |
20.4 |
10.1 |
3.7 |
|
11 UP districts bordering with MP |
24.3 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
In the recently concluded MP elections BJP hold over the SC votes in these 12 districts have weakened considerably and the direct beneficiary has been the Congress; the table below provides the complete illustration of this fact (Refer:-Table 2)
Table 2: SC Population and Co-Relation Factor with Vote share of BJP & Congress vote% in the neighboring 12 districts of Madhya Pradesh which borders with Uttar Pradesh
|
Average SC Population (%) |
Co-relation factor (SC Population vs BJP Vote % in 2013 Assembly Election in 12 districts) |
Co-relation factor (SC Population vs BJP Vote % in 2018 Assembly Election in 12 districts) |
Co-relation factor (SC Population vs INC Vote % in 2013 Assembly Election in 12 districts) |
Co-relation factor (SC Population vs INC Vote % in 2018 Assembly Election in 12 districts) |
|
20.4 |
0.2 |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
Due to this phenomenon Congress has been able to increase its vote share by 4.5% in this region in 2018 as compared to 2013 assembly election (Refer-Table 3.2) whereas a directional drop of 1.7% of BJP(Refer-Table 3.1) and 2.3% of the BSP in 2018 (Refer-Table 3.3) as compared to 2013 has been witnessed.
Comparing the 2018 Assembly results with 2014 Parliament Election district wise BJP vote share loss is of 12.7% (Refer Table 3.1) ; Congress improved its vote share by 1.6% (Refer-Table 3.2) and BSP improved its vote share by 4.5% (Refer-Table 3.3) in these 12 districts of Madhya Pradesh which are bordering with Uttar Pradesh. The vote share across each district and corresponding parties is given below :-
Table-3.1: Vote share of BJP in the 12 Districts of Madhya Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Uttar Pradesh:
|
Party Name- BJP |
2013 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2018 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2013) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2014) |
|
Morena |
35.4 |
44.2 |
29.5 |
-6.0 |
-14.8 |
|
Bhind |
33.5 |
57.7 |
30.1 |
-3.4 |
-27.6 |
|
Datia |
36.6 |
51.4 |
35.4 |
-1.3 |
-16.1 |
|
Shivpuri |
37.1 |
40.9 |
38.3 |
1.2 |
-2.6 |
|
Ashoknagar |
37.9 |
36.1 |
36.8 |
-1.1 |
0.6 |
|
Sagar |
48.6 |
56.1 |
47.0 |
-1.6 |
-9.1 |
|
Chhatarpur |
38.8 |
55.0 |
30.7 |
-8.1 |
-24.4 |
|
Tikamgarh |
41.4 |
54.0 |
31.9 |
-9.5 |
-22.1 |
|
Panna |
36.6 |
48.2 |
38.9 |
2.3 |
-9.3 |
|
Satna |
33.1 |
41.1 |
34.9 |
1.8 |
-6.2 |
|
Rewa |
32.8 |
46.2 |
38.8 |
6.1 |
-7.4 |
|
Singrauli |
39.5 |
52.4 |
38.5 |
-1.0 |
-13.8 |
|
AVERAGE VOTE% |
37.6 |
48.6 |
35.9 |
-1.7 |
-12.7 |
Table-3.2: Vote share of Congress in the 12 Districts of Madhya Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Uttar Pradesh:
|
Party Name- INC |
2013 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2018 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2013) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2014) |
|
Morena |
24.5 |
18.1 |
39.4 |
15.0 |
21.4 |
|
Bhind |
28.2 |
30.3 |
34.1 |
5.8 |
3.8 |
|
Datia |
28.4 |
39.6 |
53.5 |
25.1 |
13.9 |
|
Shivpuri |
40.6 |
48.6 |
39.6 |
-0.9 |
-9.0 |
|
Ashoknagar |
50.0 |
57.5 |
40.7 |
-9.3 |
-16.8 |
|
Sagar |
39.8 |
37.7 |
45.4 |
5.6 |
7.7 |
|
Chhatarpur |
29.7 |
27.2 |
33.7 |
4.0 |
6.5 |
|
Tikamgarh |
30.3 |
28.1 |
29.6 |
-0.7 |
1.5 |
|
Panna |
31.9 |
31.0 |
30.8 |
-1.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Satna |
27.7 |
40.1 |
32.4 |
4.7 |
-7.8 |
|
Rewa |
25.9 |
25.9 |
29.7 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
|
Singrauli |
24.4 |
31.5 |
26.3 |
1.9 |
-5.1 |
|
AVERAGE VOTE% |
31.8 |
34.6 |
36.3 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
Table-3.3: Vote share of BSP in the 12 Districts of Madhya Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Uttar Pradesh:
|
Party Name- BSP |
2013 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2018 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2013) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2014) |
|
Morena |
30.3 |
32.0 |
19.7 |
-10.6 |
-12.3 |
|
Bhind |
19.0 |
5.3 |
19.2 |
0.2 |
13.9 |
|
Datia |
14.3 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
-9.0 |
1.9 |
|
Shivpuri |
13.9 |
4.9 |
14.7 |
0.8 |
9.8 |
|
Ashoknagar |
7.9 |
2.9 |
14.2 |
6.3 |
11.4 |
|
Sagar |
4.6 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
-2.1 |
0.4 |
|
Chhatarpur |
14.6 |
5.4 |
13.5 |
-1.2 |
8.1 |
|
Tikamgarh |
6.9 |
3.2 |
13.1 |
6.2 |
9.9 |
|
Panna |
14.4 |
7.2 |
13.4 |
-1.0 |
6.2 |
|
Satna |
25.6 |
13.6 |
18.1 |
-7.5 |
4.5 |
|
Rewa |
22.4 |
21.2 |
17.8 |
-4.6 |
-3.4 |
|
Singrauli |
13.8 |
5.1 |
8.8 |
-4.9 |
3.7 |
|
AVERAGE |
15.6 |
8.8 |
13.4 |
-2.3 |
4.5 |
Given the results a legitimate question which needs to be asked – WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE ADJOINING DISTRCTS OF UP??
To elucidate this fact the past voting patterns of these 11 districts of Uttar Pradesh which are bordering with Madhya Pradesh is analyzed. It is useful to note that voting across these districts happened in 2012 Assembly Election, 2014 Parliament Election & 2017 Assembly Election respectively; vote share of the parties across these districts is given below in the chronological manner.
Table-4.1: Vote share of BJP in the 11 Districts of Uttar Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Madhya Pradesh:
|
Party Name- BJP |
2012 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2017 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2012) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2014) |
|
Agra |
18.2 |
49.7 |
49.0 |
30.8 |
-0.7 |
|
Etawah |
12.3 |
32.3 |
36.2 |
23.9 |
3.9 |
|
Jalaun |
14.9 |
51.4 |
47.6 |
32.6 |
-3.9 |
|
Jhansi |
20.9 |
43.9 |
42.0 |
21.1 |
-2.0 |
|
Lalitpur |
22.6 |
44.1 |
50.6 |
28.0 |
6.4 |
|
Mahoba |
26.5 |
47.4 |
45.4 |
18.9 |
-2.0 |
|
Banda |
15.1 |
41.8 |
43.7 |
28.5 |
1.9 |
|
Chitrakoot |
18.0 |
38.3 |
42.2 |
24.2 |
3.9 |
|
Prayagraj |
8.8 |
44.0 |
41.0 |
32.2 |
-2.9 |
|
Mirzapur |
10.9 |
43.3 |
37.8 |
26.9 |
-5.6 |
|
Sonbhadra |
12.7 |
43.3 |
43.2 |
30.6 |
-0.1 |
|
AVERAGE |
16.4 |
43.6 |
43.5 |
27.1 |
-0.1 |
Table-4.2: Vote share of SP in the 11 Districts of Uttar Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Madhya Pradesh:
|
Party Name- SP |
2012 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2017 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2012) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2014) |
|
Agra |
25.0 |
15.8 |
13.6 |
-11.3 |
-2.2 |
|
Etawah |
47.1 |
50.1 |
41.0 |
-6.0 |
-9.0 |
|
Jalaun |
23.9 |
12.9 |
8.3 |
-15.6 |
-4.6 |
|
Jhansi |
27.9 |
28.6 |
24.7 |
-3.3 |
-3.9 |
|
Lalitpur |
24.8 |
27.6 |
18.5 |
-6.3 |
-9.1 |
|
Mahoba |
23.2 |
17.9 |
27.1 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
|
Banda |
24.8 |
23.3 |
6.8 |
-18.1 |
-16.5 |
|
Chitrakoot |
30.2 |
22.2 |
15.3 |
-15.0 |
-6.9 |
|
Prayagraj |
28.7 |
24.4 |
24.9 |
-3.8 |
0.5 |
|
Mirzapur |
32.8 |
10.8 |
15.5 |
-17.3 |
4.7 |
|
Sonbhadra |
23.6 |
13.7 |
17.4 |
-6.1 |
3.7 |
|
AVERAGE |
28.4 |
22.5 |
19.4 |
-9.0 |
-3.1 |
Table-4.3: Vote share of BSP in the 11 Districts of Uttar Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Madhya Pradesh:
|
Party Name- BSP |
2012 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2017 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2012) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2014) |
|
Agra |
33.1 |
27.2 |
26.1 |
-7.1 |
-1.1 |
|
Etawah |
30.2 |
14.0 |
19.0 |
-11.2 |
5.0 |
|
Jalaun |
26.6 |
23.5 |
23.4 |
-3.2 |
-0.1 |
|
Jhansi |
28.4 |
17.2 |
23.8 |
-4.6 |
6.6 |
|
Lalitpur |
27.5 |
16.7 |
18.4 |
-9.1 |
1.7 |
|
Mahoba |
23.3 |
20.3 |
21.7 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
|
Banda |
26.0 |
23.7 |
25.3 |
-0.7 |
1.6 |
|
Chitrakoot |
26.7 |
27.5 |
19.3 |
-7.4 |
-8.2 |
|
Prayagraj |
28.6 |
18.7 |
22.3 |
-6.3 |
3.6 |
|
Mirzapur |
28.1 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
-5.9 |
0.6 |
|
Sonbhadra |
26.1 |
19.0 |
23.1 |
-3.0 |
4.1 |
|
AVERAGE |
27.7 |
20.9 |
22.2 |
-5.5 |
1.4 |
Table-4.4: Vote share of INC in the 11 Districts of Uttar Pradesh in different elections which is bordering with Madhya Pradesh:
|
Party Name- INC |
2012 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2017 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2012) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2014) |
|
Agra |
7.9 |
1.7 |
4.5 |
-3.4 |
2.8 |
|
Etawah |
4.3 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
-4.3 |
-1.0 |
|
Jalaun |
18.9 |
9.1 |
13.4 |
-5.5 |
4.4 |
|
Jhansi |
16.1 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
-10.8 |
-1.2 |
|
Lalitpur |
12.9 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
-6.0 |
1.2 |
|
Mahoba |
17.2 |
7.9 |
0.0 |
-17.2 |
-7.9 |
|
Banda |
24.8 |
4.6 |
15.9 |
-8.9 |
11.4 |
|
Chitrakoot |
12.0 |
3.9 |
9.8 |
-2.3 |
5.8 |
|
Prayagraj |
9.1 |
7.6 |
4.4 |
-4.7 |
-3.2 |
|
Mirzapur |
13.3 |
15.2 |
5.3 |
-8.0 |
-9.9 |
|
Sonbhadra |
6.5 |
12.0 |
5.8 |
-0.7 |
-6.3 |
|
AVERAGE |
13.0 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
-6.5 |
0.3 |
Now a comparison has been carried out between the performance of BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Table 5: Comparison of BJP performance in the bordering districts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh in different elections:
|
|
Madhya Pradesh 12 districts Bordering Uttar Pradesh |
Uttar Pradesh 11 districts bordering Madhya Pradesh |
||||||||
|
2013 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2018 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2013) |
Vote Swing (2018 vs. 2014) |
2012 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share (%) |
2017 Assembly Vote Share (%) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2012) |
Vote Swing (2017 vs. 2014) |
|
|
Vote % of BJP |
37.6 |
48.6 |
35.9 |
-1.7 |
-12.7 |
16.4 |
43.6 |
43.5 |
27.1 |
-0.1 |
In these 11 districts of Uttar Pradesh which are bordering with Madhya Pradesh, vote% of BJP jumped by around 27% in 2014 Parliament Election as compared to 2012 Assembly Election (Refer- Table5) which was huge achievement. Interestingly BJP was able to replicate its 2014 Lok Sabha performance in 2017 Assembly Election by retaining its vote share (43.6% in 2014 Lok Sabha vis-à-vis 43.5% in 2017 Assembly elections) in these districts and its principal opponents SP, BSP and the Congress hemorrhaged profusely.
But in the 12 districts of Madhya Pradesh which are bordering Uttar Pradesh, Vote share of BJP jumped by 11% in 2014 Parliament Election as compared to 2012 Assembly election(Refer-Table5) but BJP observed a steep drop of 12.7% in vote share in 2018 Assembly as compared to 2014 Lok Sabha. (Refer-Table5) which was not the case in the bordering districts of UttarPradesh.
The impact of the Madhya Pradesh 2018 Assembly results is bound to impact the voting pattern in these bordering Uttar Pradesh districts. It is safe to presume that BJP will lose vote share of 4-5% in these Uttar Pradesh districts thereby presenting an opportunity for its adversaries to benefit by forming larger tactical alliances consolidating their vote shares across caste and community lines.
A classic case in point is the Phulpur by-elections that happened where BJP dropped 13% of its vote share to lose the seat to Samajwadi Party (seat previously held by Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya) (Refer Table 6)
Table 6: Phulpur Lok Sabha Seat Vote Share change of BJP in successive elections
|
Party Name |
2014 Lok Sabha Vote Share |
2017 Assembly Vote Share |
2018 Lok Sabha Bye-Election Vote Share |
Vote Swing (2014 vs. 2018 bye election) |
|
BJP+ |
52% |
42% |
39% |
-13% |
With 13 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs in this region [Agra (SC), Fatehpur Sikri, Mainpuri, Etawah (SC), Jhansi, Hamirpur, Banda, Phulpur, Bhadohi, Prayagraj, Mirzapur and Robertsganj (SC)] political bulwarking will be at an all time high with a keen eye on BJP vote share – slippage which seems inevitable or whether they can be able to arrest the tide?
This article is written by Arka Chatterji.
Source of the data is www.chanakyya.com